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Tory bounce endures, shows Telegraph poll

TORY SUPPORT HIGHEST FOR FIFTEEN YEARS

 

One week after Labour's Black Saturday, an ICM survey Sunday Telegraph puts the Conservatives on 43%; 7% ahead of Labour.

ICM haven't put the Conservatives at such a level since before Black Wednesday, in 1992.

Such a result would give David Cameron's Conservatives a single figure majority in the Commons. The LibDems would lose the majority of their seats.

Voters are equally split (41%) on whether Brown was right to call off the election.

66% of voters tell ICM that they want a referendum on the EU Treaty. By 47% to 29% they would reject the Treaty in such a referendum. Most voters (56% to 38%) would vote to stay in the EU although a majority (52%) of Conservatives would vote to leave.

Cam gives Gord poll battering

 

THE Tories have swept to a three-point lead in the wake of Gordon Brown’s disastrous week, an exclusive poll for The Sun reveals today.

David Cameron has steered his party to 41 per cent support – with Labour trailing on just 38 per cent.

The fiasco of the last five days has sent the PM’s personal ratings nose-diving – and given Mr Cameron a huge boost in many voters’ eyes.

Labour’s lead has dropped by a staggering TEN points since Ipsos Mori’s last survey.

Mr Brown’s team will be horrified by the turnaround in fortunes – only a week ago he was inching towards calling a November election which he was convinced he would win.

But the Prime Minister called off his plans on Sunday morning – triggering a week of disasters.

Chancellor Alistair Darling outrageously stole Tory policies on death duties, foreign flight taxes and levies on wealthy foreigners.

And Mr Brown was subjected to a Commons hammering on Wednesday – his first in 25 years as an MP.

The results of our poll would produce a hung Parliament – slashing Mr Brown’s Commons majority to leave him with just 313 seats, with the Tories on 295 and Lib Dems on 13.

Lib Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell seems a dead man walking, tumbling to just 11 per cent support according to our Ipsos Mori survey.

The decision to delay an election until 2009 means the Lib Dems have time to axe their leader and replace him with rising star Nick Clegg.

There was fresh embarrassment for the PM last night.

Mr Brown had swept aside calls for an election on Wednesday saying that a petition on the Downing Street website had raised just 26 names – but last night there were 6,000 and rising.

Our exclusive poll was taken after Mr Brown’s Commons mauling by Mr Cameron on Wednesday. The PM still leads Cameron on being the “most capable Prime Minister”, but his 41-point lead over the Tory has been cut to just 16.

Mr Brown’s “trustworthy” rating tumbled to +5, down from +17 in August.

Meanwhile, Mr Cameron’s trust rating has risen from -14 in August to +4 now – an 18 point leap.

At the end of September, Labour were on 41 per cent, with the Conservatives trailing on 34 per cent, and the Lib Dems on 16 per cent.

GEORGE PASCOE-WATSON, 12 October 2007

A turning point? No, but it may be an opportunity for the Tories

 

For all the recent stark headlines, the polling message is mixed. A new Populus poll for The Times, undertaken between Friday evening and Sunday, puts Labour on 40 per cent, up one point since the last poll between Tuesday and Thursday. The Tories are on 38 per cent, up two points, and the Liberal Democrats are three points down at a new low for Populus of 12 per cent.

More than four fifths of the interviews (815 out of 1,008) were undertaken before the announcement on Saturday afternoon that there would be no election this year. So it is impossible to assess any post-announcement impact.

There are two striking points about the poll. First, Labour support has, with only a couple of exceptions, been remarkably stable at about 39 to 40 per cent, plus or minus a point or two, that is within the margin of error. Parties other than the big three have also been stable at about 10 per cent.

Secondly, most of the movement in the past fortnight has been between the Tories and the Liberal Democrats. For instance, the Tories’ average rating in all published polls has risen from 33 per cent in September to 38 per cent so far this month, while Liberal Democrat support has fallen from 16 to 13 per cent.

Such a sharp fluctuation may reflect the unstable conditions of the conference season, rather than any underlying shift. Have nearly a quarter of former Lib Dem supporters defected to the Tories after their promises about inheritance tax?

The relationship to watch will be between Labour and the Tories. Only if, and when, the Tories start overtaking Labour will it be possible to talk about a turning point. That is what happened in the other direction in two stages: in the autumn of 1992, after Black Wednesday, and in the spring of 1993, after the Major Government’s taraising proposals. The Tories never recovered. It is premature to believe that this has yet occurred. Labour is still ahead, just, or level-pegging in all but two national polls. The Tory lead could be as short-lived now as it was in September 2000 during the fuel protests.

Nevertheless, the latest Populus poll has some warnings for Mr Brown. Even in the middle of the Northern Rock panic, 56 per cent of voters still trusted the Brown-Alistair Darling team to deal with any problems facing the British economy in the months or years ahead, while just 18 per cent trusted the David Cameron-George Osborne team. Now the gap has narrowed substantially to 43 per cent backing for Mr Brown and Mr Darling, while trust in Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne has risen by 10 points to 28 per cent. Labour still has the edge on economic management, but could be vulnerable with conditions expected to become tighter next year.

The Tories should not get too euphoric. Mr Brown’s blunders have negated the gains that Labour achieved in the summer, and have boosted the Tories, while opening up the tax issue.

Mr Cameron looks more credibile and Mr Brown fallible but, so far, this is only an opportunity, not a turning point.

9 October 2007, Peter Riddell

Brown loses lead with Urbanites

Gordon Brown has lost his bounce with Metro readers, with the Conservatives leading the polls after the party conference season.

Twenty-six per cent of our Urban Life panel said they would vote Tory compared with 23 per cent for Labour and 12 per cent for the Liberal Democrats.

The rest either didn't know who they would vote for or wouldn't bother voting at all.

In a similar poll in August, Labour was ahead at 24 per cent, the Tories were on 22 per cent and the Lib Dems had 15 per cent.

The latest survey showed ten per cent felt Labour's conference boosted the party's appeal while 34 per cent were impressed by the Tory gathering.

Meanwhile, 52 per cent thought the NHS was providing high standards of care for all, 29 per cent were dissatisfied with it and 17 per cent were undecided.

 

GORDON Brown's plans for an early general election were thrown into chaos last night when he learned the devastating results of a News of the World poll.

It revealed a Tory lead of SIX PER CENT in 83 key marginal constituencies—meaning almost 50 Labour MPs would lose their seats.

In a November election the Prime Minister would squander his majority and have to battle for control of a hung parliament.

Last night after hurriedly ditching his plans for a snap poll, a shaken Mr Brown admitted studying the News of the World's results, but insisted: "I think we would win an election now, sooner or later.

"There were people saying that you should go, there were people saying you shouldn't go."

And the Premier claimed: "I made the decision for a different reason—because I want to get on with the job of change in this country.''

But Tory leader David Cameron blasted: "The Prime Minister has shown great weakness and indecision.

"He has been trying to spin his way into a general election and he has had to make a humiliating retreat. The News of the World's poll shows that it's the Conservatives' agenda for change that's hitting home with British people.

"Gordon Brown's decision to back down from an election must be disappointing to many of your readers who, like me, are fed up waiting for the much-needed changes this country requires.

"We will continue to fight on their behalf until Gordon Brown has the courage to give them the election they deserve.''

Our exclusive ICM survey was taken this week AFTER all three party conferences and following Mr Cameron's acclaimed speech in Blackpool.

The devastating poll reveals:

HOME Secretary Jacqui Smith and a host of other ministers would be among 49 Labour MPs to lose their seats.

VOTERS give Gordon Brown's government a thumbs-down in most areas of policy, even the NHS.

BAD results for the new Premier, particularly on tax, crime and—crucially—immigration.