Tory bounce endures, shows Telegraph poll

TORY SUPPORT HIGHEST FOR FIFTEEN YEARS

One week after Labour's Black Saturday, an ICM survey Sunday Telegraph puts the Conservatives on 43%; 7% ahead of Labour.

ICM haven't put the Conservatives at such a level since before Black Wednesday, in 1992.

Such a result would give David Cameron's Conservatives a single figure majority in the Commons. The LibDems would lose the majority of their seats.

Voters are equally split (41%) on whether Brown was right to call off the election.

66% of voters tell ICM that they want a referendum on the EU Treaty. By 47% to 29% they would reject the Treaty in such a referendum. Most voters (56% to 38%) would vote to stay in the EU although a majority (52%) of Conservatives would vote to leave.

Cam gives Gord poll battering

THE Tories have swept to a three-point lead in the wake of Gordon Brown’s disastrous week, an exclusive poll for The Sun reveals today.

David Cameron has steered his party to 41 per cent support – with Labour trailing on just 38 per cent.

The fiasco of the last five days has sent the PM’s personal ratings nose-diving – and given Mr Cameron a huge boost in many voters’ eyes.

Labour’s lead has dropped by a staggering TEN points since Ipsos Mori’s last survey.

Mr Brown’s team will be horrified by the turnaround in fortunes – only a week ago he was inching towards calling a November election which he was convinced he would win.

But the Prime Minister called off his plans on Sunday morning – triggering a week of disasters.

Chancellor Alistair Darling outrageously stole Tory policies on death duties, foreign flight taxes and levies on wealthy foreigners.

And Mr Brown was subjected to a Commons hammering on Wednesday – his first in 25 years as an MP.

The results of our poll would produce a hung Parliament – slashing Mr Brown’s Commons majority to leave him with just 313 seats, with the Tories on 295 and Lib Dems on 13.

Lib Dem leader Sir Menzies Campbell seems a dead man walking, tumbling to just 11 per cent support according to our Ipsos Mori survey.

The decision to delay an election until 2009 means the Lib Dems have time to axe their leader and replace him with rising star Nick Clegg.

There was fresh embarrassment for the PM last night.

Mr Brown had swept aside calls for an election on Wednesday saying that a petition on the Downing Street website had raised just 26 names – but last night there were 6,000 and rising.

Our exclusive poll was taken after Mr Brown’s Commons mauling by Mr Cameron on Wednesday. The PM still leads Cameron on being the “most capable Prime Minister”, but his 41-point lead over the Tory has been cut to just 16.

Mr Brown’s “trustworthy” rating tumbled to +5, down from +17 in August.

Meanwhile, Mr Cameron’s trust rating has risen from -14 in August to +4 now – an 18 point leap.

At the end of September, Labour were on 41 per cent, with the Conservatives trailing on 34 per cent, and the Lib Dems on 16 per cent.

GEORGE PASCOE-WATSON, 12 October 2007

A turning point? No, but it may be an opportunity for the Tories

A blip or a turning point? A fuel protest of 2000, or a Black Wednesday of 1992? Gordon Brown is suffering sharper media and parliamentary criticism than he has ever faced.

For all the recent stark headlines, the polling message is mixed. A new Populus poll for The Times, undertaken between Friday evening and Sunday, puts Labour on 40 per cent, up one point since the last poll between Tuesday and Thursday. The Tories are on 38 per cent, up two points, and the Liberal Democrats are three points down at a new low for Populus of 12 per cent.

More than four fifths of the interviews (815 out of 1,008) were undertaken before the announcement on Saturday afternoon that there would be no election this year. So it is impossible to assess any post-announcement impact.

There are two striking points about the poll. First, Labour support has, with only a couple of exceptions, been remarkably stable at about 39 to 40 per cent, plus or minus a point or two, that is within the margin of error. Parties other than the big three have also been stable at about 10 per cent.

Secondly, most of the movement in the past fortnight has been between the Tories and the Liberal Democrats. For instance, the Tories’ average rating in all published polls has risen from 33 per cent in September to 38 per cent so far this month, while Liberal Democrat support has fallen from 16 to 13 per cent.

Such a sharp fluctuation may reflect the unstable conditions of the conference season, rather than any underlying shift. Have nearly a quarter of former Lib Dem supporters defected to the Tories after their promises about inheritance tax?

The relationship to watch will be between Labour and the Tories. Only if, and when, the Tories start overtaking Labour will it be possible to talk about a turning point. That is what happened in the other direction in two stages: in the autumn of 1992, after Black Wednesday, and in the spring of 1993, after the Major Government’s taraising proposals. The Tories never recovered. It is premature to believe that this has yet occurred. Labour is still ahead, just, or level-pegging in all but two national polls. The Tory lead could be as short-lived now as it was in September 2000 during the fuel protests.

Nevertheless, the latest Populus poll has some warnings for Mr Brown. Even in the middle of the Northern Rock panic, 56 per cent of voters still trusted the Brown-Alistair Darling team to deal with any problems facing the British economy in the months or years ahead, while just 18 per cent trusted the David Cameron-George Osborne team. Now the gap has narrowed substantially to 43 per cent backing for Mr Brown and Mr Darling, while trust in Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne has risen by 10 points to 28 per cent. Labour still has the edge on economic management, but could be vulnerable with conditions expected to become tighter next year.

The Tories should not get too euphoric. Mr Brown’s blunders have negated the gains that Labour achieved in the summer, and have boosted the Tories, while opening up the tax issue.

Mr Cameron looks more credibile and Mr Brown fallible but, so far, this is only an opportunity, not a turning point.

9 October 2007, Peter Riddell

Brown loses lead with Urbanites

Gordon Brown has lost his bounce with Metro readers, with the Conservatives leading the polls after the party conference season.

Twenty-six per cent of our Urban Life panel said they would vote Tory compared with 23 per cent for Labour and 12 per cent for the Liberal Democrats.

The rest either didn't know who they would vote for or wouldn't bother voting at all.

In a similar poll in August, Labour was ahead at 24 per cent, the Tories were on 22 per cent and the Lib Dems had 15 per cent.

The latest survey showed ten per cent felt Labour's conference boosted the party's appeal while 34 per cent were impressed by the Tory gathering.

Meanwhile, 52 per cent thought the NHS was providing high standards of care for all, 29 per cent were dissatisfied with it and 17 per cent were undecided.

GORDON Brown's plans for an early general election were thrown into chaos last night when he learned the devastating results of a News of the World poll.

It revealed a Tory lead of SIX PER CENT in 83 key marginal constituencies—meaning almost 50 Labour MPs would lose their seats.

In a November election the Prime Minister would squander his majority and have to battle for control of a hung parliament.

Last night after hurriedly ditching his plans for a snap poll, a shaken Mr Brown admitted studying the News of the World's results, but insisted: "I think we would win an election now, sooner or later.

"There were people saying that you should go, there were people saying you shouldn't go."

And the Premier claimed: "I made the decision for a different reason—because I want to get on with the job of change in this country.''

But Tory leader David Cameron blasted: "The Prime Minister has shown great weakness and indecision.

"He has been trying to spin his way into a general election and he has had to make a humiliating retreat. The News of the World's poll shows that it's the Conservatives' agenda for change that's hitting home with British people.

"Gordon Brown's decision to back down from an election must be disappointing to many of your readers who, like me, are fed up waiting for the much-needed changes this country requires.

"We will continue to fight on their behalf until Gordon Brown has the courage to give them the election they deserve.''

Our exclusive ICM survey was taken this week AFTER all three party conferences and following Mr Cameron's acclaimed speech in Blackpool.

The devastating poll reveals:

HOME Secretary Jacqui Smith and a host of other ministers would be among 49 Labour MPs to lose their seats.

VOTERS give Gordon Brown's government a thumbs-down in most areas of policy, even the NHS.

BAD results for the new Premier, particularly on tax, crime and—crucially—immigration.

EVEN his much-vaunted reputation on the economy is questioned, with only 53% approval. Particularly worrying for Labour is that the vital "Worcester Woman" has turned against him with 10% fewer (43%) giving him their support.

TORY promises on inheritance tax and stamp duty are massively popular.

PLEDGES like those, plus Cameron's 67-minute unscripted address, giving a remarkable bounce to the Tories, with 33% of voters saying they were MORE likely to vote Tory compared to a mere 16% rise for Labour after the conference season.

ONLY 59% of Labour supporters would turn out for a November election compared to 71% of Tories.

LABOUR would STILL be the biggest party with 306 seats—but the Liberals under Sir Menzies Campbell would hold the balance of power and decide who will form the next government, even though in the marginals the party only scrapes 12% of the vote.

Mr Brown called off the election after reading our poll with horror and having a series of heated discussions with aides.

Our results were a shocking kick in the teeth for them.

They show that in the space of just a fortnight the 11% lead registered after Mr Brown's speech to the Labour conference has plummeted.

In these marginals the Tories now have a 6% lead—44% to 38%.

It indicates that the "Brown Bounce" that powered him through his first 100 days in office—and allowed him to consider going for an election two years before he has to—has suddenly deflated.

Despite his bid to distance himself from Tony Blair, only 30% of all voters think he's succeeded while 21% say Blair is better and 45% say there is no difference.

Our poll did NOT take into account likely further Labour losses elsewhere in the country, such as Scotland, which could make the PM's plight even more severe.

The shock survey came after the PM appeared to start the ball rolling for a November general election.

Tomorrow he is due to make a major statement on Britain's role in Iraq.

And Chancellor Alistair Darling has brought forward to Tuesday both the Comprehensive Spending Review and the Pre-Budget Report, trailing billions of pounds of government spending, due later in the month. Civil servants were quietly warned to get ready for a month's holiday while a campaign took place.

Mr Brown was expected to have an audience with the Queen on Tuesday and a provisional booking had been made to address the nation on TV.

Plans were advanced enough for key Brown aides to suggest it should be the first modern general election to be held on a SATURDAY to boost turn-out.

Meanwhile, our pollsters ICM started quizzing voters in the 83 key battlegrounds where Labour and the Tories are fighting most closely for control after David Cameron's closing speech at the Tory conference in Blackpool.

The survey proves that in these key constituencies the Tories are steaming ahead.

A result now would give Labour approximately 306 seats, with the Conservatives behind on 246. It is not possible to predict how the other parties would stand.

However, Gordon Brown would have to go cap in hand to the Liberal Democrats to form a coalition to form a working government.

The Conservatives have spent the past six months pouring resources into these marginal seats to wrest them from the hands of Labour.

Deputy Chairman Lord Ashcroft has put his personal fortune into the scheme, giving each local Conservative Party up to £30,000 each.

But so far it seems money, and a Blackpool conference, well spent. In policy area after policy area, Mr Brown is in deep trouble—particularly on immigration.

A huge 77% of all voters believe Labour has done a bad job. So do 62% of Labour voters. Yet virtually every seat in the poll has significant immigrant populations, which show it is no longer seen as a racial issue.

Similar doubts among Labour supporters are seen in other policy areas.

On TAX, 63% overall are dissatisfied, including 40 per cent of Labour voters. On LAW AND ORDER, 63% are unhappy with Labour including 43% of their own supporters.

The best news for Mr Brown is still his handling of the ECONOMY, but even then his 53% approval rate is less than expected.

On EDUCATION he squeezes ahead by 44% to 42%. And voters overall approve of his handling of the foot and mouth crisis by 49% to 40%.

Although Labour voters appear slightly less likely to vote than Tories, it seems there WAS a widespread appetite for a snap poll.

A clear majority of voters (55%) said it was right for Mr Brown to call an early election to get his own mandate, with 60% agreeing that it was a distraction that should be got out of the way.

They also did not believe it would be cynical for him to call an election while he is still in his supposed honeymoon period (51% versus 41%).

Ominously, there was also a clear warning about delaying for too long with 49% saying the economy will not be as strong so Labour will damage their chances by delaying.

However, there is a sliver of hope for Mr Brown as he digests our findings. Little more than a third (37%) say the Conservatives under Mr Cameron are ready for government, compared to 52% who disagree.

Mr Brown had spent yesterday at Downing Street locked in talks with his closest advisers. He over-ruled his own election co-ordinator, Douglas Alexander, who pleaded with him to stick with plans to go to the country two years early.

That advice came despite the fact that the electoral register is not up to date.

A senior Downing Street source admitted: "There are a million people missing from the list and if we don't have a clear lead that is a vital factor.

"The register would not have been updated until December and by then it would be too late."

Mr Alexander's reputation was in tatters last night.

A senior Brownite MP told the News of the World: "I hope you note the role Douglas played in this.

"He knew the state of the electoral register a month ago but set this thing rolling."

Mr Brown's decision wasn't only attacked by the Tories.

Labour left-winger John McDonnell blasted: "We have wasted that bounce that we got after Tony Blair left and we have wasted the goodwill that we got as a result of Tony Blair going. People will be angry about that."